Jeremy Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large
Jeremy Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large
The veteran BBC international editor Jeremy Bowen has a way of cutting through the geopolitical noise with the cold, hard logic of history. Recently, as the rhetoric from the United States regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran intensifies, Bowen has pointed toward a chilling historical parallel. Donald Trump, back in the political spotlight with a potential return to the White House, has frequently signaled his support for an internal Iranian uprising. However, for those who remember the scorched earth and broken promises of the Middle East's past, the ghost of 1991 Iraq haunts the current discourse.
The core of the argument is simple yet devastating: encouraging a population to rise against a brutal regime is one thing; standing by them when the bullets start flying is another entirely. As Trump continues to pressure Tehran through "maximum pressure" rhetoric, Jeremy Bowen warns that the lessons of the 1991 Shia and Kurdish uprisings against Saddam Hussein serve as a grim cautionary tale for the Iranian people and the international community.
The Trump Doctrine: Maximum Pressure and the Call for Change
Donald Trump's approach to Iran has never been subtle. From withdrawing the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to the targeted assassination of Qasem Soleimani, his administration's goal was clear: cripple the regime in Tehran. But beyond the sanctions and the military posturing, there is a recurring theme in Trump's messaging—a direct appeal to the Iranian people to reclaim their country.
For a population struggling under the weight of a tanking economy, high inflation, and social repression, the promise of American support can sound like a lifeline. Trump has often used social media to praise protesters, framing their struggle as a noble quest for freedom that the United States fully endorses. To the youth in Tehran or the marginalized groups in Sistan and Baluchestan, this rhetoric offers a flicker of hope that they are not alone in their fight against the clerical establishment.
However, Jeremy Bowen points out that this rhetorical support is often disconnected from a concrete military or humanitarian commitment. The "America First" policy is inherently isolationist. While Trump may want the Iranian regime to fall, he has shown a deep-seated reluctance to involve the U.S. military in "endless wars" in the Middle East. This creates a dangerous "gap of expectation." If the Iranian people take the bait and launch a full-scale insurrection, will the U.S. actually intervene when the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) deploys its full might? Or will they be left to face the hangman's noose alone?
- Economic Warfare: Sanctions have devastated the Iranian middle class, theoretically creating the "dry tinder" for a revolution.
- Digital Diplomacy: Trump's direct communication with Iranian citizens via Persian-language tweets bypasses traditional diplomatic channels.
- The Regime's Response: Tehran views this American encouragement not as a call for democracy, but as a direct threat to national sovereignty, often leading to even harsher domestic crackdowns.
The 1991 Iraq Precedent: A Betrayal Written in Blood
To understand why Jeremy Bowen is so concerned, one must look back to the end of the Persian Gulf War in 1991. After the U.S.-led coalition successfully expelled Iraqi forces from Kuwait, President George H.W. Bush made a fateful broadcast. He called on the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force the dictator, Saddam Hussein, to step aside.
The response was immediate and overwhelming. In the south, the Shia population rose up in cities like Basra and Najaf. In the north, the Kurds seized control of several provinces. For a few brief weeks, it looked as though Saddam's regime was collapsing. The rebels looked to the skies, expecting American air power to protect them from Saddam's retreating but still lethal Republican Guard.
But the help never came. The U.S. government, fearing a power vacuum that might benefit Iran or lead to a chaotic breakup of Iraq, chose to stay on the sidelines. They allowed Saddam to use his attack helicopters to systematically crush the rebellion. The result was a massacre. Tens of thousands of people were killed, and millions more were forced into a desperate flight toward the borders. Jeremy Bowen, who covered the Middle East during this era, witnessed the aftermath firsthand—the mass graves, the destroyed villages, and the profound sense of betrayal felt by those who had dared to hope for American support.
The lesson from 1991 is that Western calls for an "uprising" are often motivated by short-term strategic interests rather than a long-term commitment to the people on the ground. When the strategic calculus changes, the people who risked everything are often the first to be sacrificed. Bowen suggests that the Iranian people, currently being nudged toward a similar path by Trump's rhetoric, should look very closely at those 33-year-old scars in neighboring Iraq.
The IRGC vs. The People: A Recipe for Catastrophe?
The Iranian state today is arguably more ideologically entrenched and militarily prepared for domestic unrest than Saddam's Iraq was in 1991. The IRGC and the Basij militia are specifically designed to handle internal threats. They have spent decades refining their techniques of surveillance, intimidation, and kinetic force. Any uprising in Iran would not just be a protest; it would be a civil war against a highly disciplined and well-armed paramilitary force.
If Donald Trump or any future U.S. administration encourages a revolt without a plan to neutralize the IRGC's air and ground capabilities, the result could be even more catastrophic than the "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests of 2022. During those protests, hundreds were killed and thousands imprisoned, yet the regime remained firmly in power. A larger, American-backed uprising that lacks actual military backing could lead to a bloodbath that destabilizes the entire region.
Jeremy Bowen's analysis highlights the ethical dilemma of "regime change light." By providing the spark but refusing to provide the fire extinguisher, the West risks inciting a humanitarian disaster. There is also the regional geopolitical fallout to consider. A chaotic Iran would have immediate impacts on:
- Regional Proxies: Groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen might lash out if they perceive their patron in Tehran is under existential threat.
- Global Oil Markets: Any prolonged conflict in Iran would send shockwaves through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially causing a global economic crisis.
- Refugee Crises: Just as in 1991, a failed uprising would lead to a massive displacement of people, putting immense pressure on neighboring Turkey, Iraq, and Europe.
Conclusion: The Peril of Empty Promises
As the political landscape in the United States continues to shift, the rhetoric regarding Iran will likely only get louder. Donald Trump's calls for an Iranian uprising tap into a genuine desire for change within the country, but they come with a heavy historical baggage that cannot be ignored. Jeremy Bowen's warning is a sobering reminder that in the world of high-stakes geopolitics, words have consequences—and those consequences are often paid for in the lives of ordinary citizens.
The lessons from Iraq in 1991 teach us that "support" is a hollow word if it doesn't include a commitment to see the transition through. If the international community, led by the U.S., truly wants to see a democratic Iran, it must move beyond inflammatory rhetoric and toward a policy that prioritizes the safety and long-term stability of the Iranian people. Without a clear and honest strategy, the call for an uprising may simply lead to another generation of betrayal and bloodshed, leaving the Middle East more fractured than ever before.
For now, the world watches and waits. But as Bowen suggests, those who do not learn from the tragedies of 1991 are doomed to see them repeated in the streets of Tehran and beyond. The Iranian people are brave, resilient, and desperate for change, but they deserve more than being used as a pawn in a larger geopolitical game of chess where the king never moves to protect his most vulnerable pieces.
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